Contagion | How a Virus Spreads (and how it’s stopped)


Hey guys, I just wanted to take a minute and
talk about a few things before getting into today’s video. First, I just wanted to say thank you for
all of the support on my last video, I haven’t had the time to respond to everyone but I
read every comment and I want you to know that I appreciate all of you for taking the
time to watch the video and to leave some kind words, it really means a lot. I also have to say a special thank you to
all of my new Patreon supporters and all of the people that sent me something on PayPal,
it’s been helping me stress a lot less these days and I can’t thank you enough for that. Also, for those wondering, I’m definitely
not sick or anything, I’m hoping it stays that way but I’ve been doing my part, only
going out for essentials, washing my hands thoroughly, so I should be okay but I’ll keep
you all updated. And one more thing before we get started,
I wanted to give a big thank you to this video’s sponsor, Raid Shadow Legends. Raid is a fantasy RPG that allows you to take
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Refill and 1 Free Champion, Adjudicator, that you can find right here(show image, display
text rewards will be available for 30 days), and will be available for 30 days. In any RPG I’m always fond of mage characters,
so this Dark Elf Kael has been my go-to and so far he’s been putting in some serious work. If you want to try it out for yourself just
follow the links in the description, and claim your rewards today! Given the current situation I, like many,
have been returning to Steven Soderbergh’s film “Contagion”. To see what might be on the horizon if the
disease continues to spread. It is obviously a fictional story about a
fictional outbreak, but according to many scientists it actually gets a lot of things
right in how it portrays not only the science behind the virus, but the public response
to an outbreak of this scale, so how does a virus spread? And how is it eventually stopped? In the case of the fictional MEV-1 virus,
the virus is zoonotic, meaning that it transfers from animals to humans. “Somewhere in the world, the wrong pig met
up with the wrong bat.” Day one. When the infected pig is handled by a butcher
who doesn’t wash his hands, he transmits the disease to Beth Emhoff, the index patient,
or patient zero. Throughout the first day of infection she’s
not showing any symptoms and infects others unknowingly, and when her and two of the other
infected all hop on different planes, the disease makes its way to a few new countires. Day Two. We start to see early deaths, while infected
clusters pop up in the areas visited by those who’ve contracted the disease. But it’s just getting started. “Kowloon is the most densely populated area
in the world, and Hong Kong is a harbor. It’s going to spread”
Within a week it’s spread to several other major cities in the United States, and clusters
are showing up all over the globe, as the number of confirmed cases sees a massive spike
over the following weeks. “Last night there were 5 deaths and 32 cases.” “We have 47 cases and 8 deaths.” “We’re seeing large clusters in Frankfurt,
Cairo…” “Government officials are reporting the closing
of Mondale Elementary schools…” “You’ve come into contact with an infectious
disease and that you’re highly contagious….don’t talk to anyone, don’t touch anyone. That’s the most important thing.” “On day one there were 2 people that had it,
and then there were 4, and then it was 16, and you think you’ve got it in front of you
but next it’s 256 and then it’s 65,000. And it’s behind you and above you…” “We’ve got approximately 89,000 cases at this
point and that we are heading toward 267,000…” “In 30 steps it’s a billion sick.” “The WHO estimates the number of people infected
worldwide to be over 8,000,000.” “Without a vaccine we can anticipate that
approximately 1 in 12 people on the planet will contract the disease.” “The death toll in the United States is now
believed to have reached 2,500,000. The President issued a statement from a non-disclosed…” The death toll and total number of infected
continues to climb and eventually reach its peak as the number of susceptibles decreases. Until scientists develop a vaccine somewhere
around day 35. The Food and Drug Administration is accelerating
approval of the MEV-1 vaccine currently in production at 5 secret locations in the U.S.
and Europe, saying the first doses could be availabe for human use within 90 days. Finally reaching the end of the worst days,
with a final death toll of 26,000,000 people. So how did it spread to that many people,
that fast? Is that even possible in the real world? As it turns out, theoretically yes. “So at this point I think we have to believe
thi is respiratory in nature, maybe fomites too.” “What’s that, fomites?” “It refers to transmission from surfaces. The average person touches their face 2,000
or 3,000 times a day. In between we’re touching door knobs, water
fountains, elevator buttons, and each other. Those things become fomites.” You can spread the disease even without presenting
symptoms, and you could end up contracting the disease through something as simple as
touching a contaminated surface or breathing in pathogens in the air when standing too
close to an infected person. There’s a mathematical equation used to quantify
how infectious a disease may be, which is crucial in determining the potential scale
of an epidemic. “What we need to determine is this: for every
person who gets sick, how many other people are they likely to infect? For seasonal flu that’s usually about 1, smallpox
on the other hand is over 3. We call that number the R-0(R-naught).” “Any ideas what that may be for this?” “How fast it multiplies depends on a variety
of factors; the incubation period, how long a person is contagious — sometimes people
can be contagious without even having symptoms, we need to know that too. And we need to know how big the population
of people susceptible to the virus might be. Once we know the R-0, we’ll be able to get
a handle on the scale of the epidemic. This isn’t a hard number that stays the same
throughout the process, in fact that number can be lowered through preventative measures
like quarantine or vaccination, and when everything is working properly that can eventually bring
the reproductive rate down to zero, which is what happend for SARS. And by Day Nine, they have their number. “Using our model based on an R-0 of 2, here
is where we expect to be in 48 hours.” Essentially this number tells us how likely
the disease is to spread upon contact with an infected individual, considering the many
different factors that effect transmission rate like age or pre-existing medical condition. But understanding a virus’s R-0 just helps
us to understand the scale of the outbreak, there still needs to be an ongoing investigation
into how it all began and how to keep it contained. “That’s also why the World Health Organization
is sending an epidemiologist to Hong Kong. It’s hard to know what it is without knowing
where it came from so our first job with these things is always to find ground zero, figure
out how it jumped to the population to begin with.” By tracing back step by step through the chain
of infected, eventually you find your way back to the beginning. Which helps to answer important questions
of how this disease was transmitted to humans in the first place, what sort of people are
more susceptible, as well as to follow a trail to the other infected areas and to help implement
the proper procedures to contain and mitigate the effects of the outbreak. “Emhoff is the index patient, we need to know
everywhere she went before the casino.” “We’re isolating the sick and quarantining
those who we believe were exposed.” Arguably the most important step in the process
that happens concurrently with finding its transmission rate and origin, is studying
the virus itself in a lab to eventually find a cure. This involves first being able to grow and
observe it in a lab setting, and then testing as many attempts needed until they develop
a successful vaccine. But even then, it’s still a long and complicated
process until it could ever reach the public. “If we even had a viable vaccine right now
we would still have to do human trials, and that would take weeks. And then we would have to get clearance and
approval, figure out manufacturing and distribution, that would take months. Then train survivors to give inoculations,
more months, more deaths.” Though the film speeds this process up quite
a bit, in total, From the initial outbreak to widespread vaccination, was only a span
of about six months. To contrast, Ebola was first discovered in
1976 but we didn’t see an FDA approved vaccine until just last year. Generally speaking one of the biggest complaints
within the scientific community about the film is how fast and efficient the public
reponse to the crisis is. “Now in the movies, it’s quite different. There’s a group of handsome epidemiologists
ready to go. They move in, they save the day, but that’s
just pure Hollywood. We’re not ready for the next epidemic. The failure to prepare could allow the next
epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola.” So all of this can feel very scary, like we
might see something even worse than what the film presents. But I think it’s important to manage our expectations,
and Contagion does not provide the best model for predicting how things will play out for
COVID-19. There are countless articles from scientists
analyzing the film to clear up any concerns, and we can always just look at the hard data
presented in the film to see how it differs from our current reality. Earlier we talked about the R-0, which is
the average rate of transmission for an infection, by the end of the film the MEV-1 virus has
mutated and reached an R-0 of “no less than four”. With a estimated mortality rate of 25%. Currently COVID-19 has an R-0 of between 2
and 2.5, with the CDC and WHO estimating a mortality rate of around 2%. In other words, the coronavirus is half as
infectious as the fictional MEV-1 virus, and not even one-tenth as fatal. For perspective, on January 22nd, there were
a total of 580 confirmed coronavirus cases. By March 15th there were around 170,000. But for the MEV-1 virus, in that same time-frame
it had spread to 10% of the world’s population, and killed a total of 26,000,000 people. Because as it turns out, they take some creative
leeway to make their fictional pandemic more severe. Like the time before transmission. We see Beth get infected and within the same
day is already able to spread the disease to multiple others. In reality “It would take some period of time
— at least days — for her to shed the virus from her respiratory tract or saliva.” It takes a while for a virus to make enough
copies of itself to spread through the body and actually make a person contagious, for
COVID-19 that’s looking like five to six days. There’s also the rate of death, which seemingly
effects people of all ages and backgrounds equally, which is uncommon in most viruses,
and it certainly kills in a much smaller window of time than anything we’re seeing with COVID-19. Basically, the progression of events in the
film isn’t entirely implausible, it’s just not very realistic; while it does makes for
a more thrilling film, ultimately it is just a movie and not some crystal ball vision of
our future. Though, that’s not to say there aren’t worthwhile
lessons that we can take from the film. Don’t go out if you’re feeling unwell, wash
your hands thoroughly and often, and for the love of god “stop touching your face.” Don’t be this guy. “Could you cover your mouth please?” “Fuck off lady.” Don’t be these people. Because ultimately you’re just hurting other
people who are just as scared as you, so try to stay calm and look out for others, try
to be a helper whenever possible because the world needs it. And don’t forget about the people who are
sacrificing their own safety to look out for the rest of us. Often going entire days without food or sleep,
putting themselves at risk and facing incredibly difficult decisions that no one should have
to face. And sometimes, even making the ultimate sacrifice. So do what you can to make their lives easier,
they deserve it. We also need to remember that while we may
be the dominant species on this planet, we’re not invincible, all it takes is one tiny microbe
to potentially unravel everything. And we need to look closer at how these things
start so we can do everything in our power to make sure this never happens again. We need better environmental protection that
doesn’t disturb every natural habitat that remains, because the more we fight the natural
order the more it fights back. We need better preparations for this sort
of event, if every country has protocol in place for nuclear fallout, you’d think we’d
be better prepared for something that epidemiologists have been warning us about for years. We also need better food safety regulations,
because these meat markets can are breeding grounds for disease, and frankly China was
under scrutiny well before this novel coronavirus for its bad practices with food sanitation,
with many rightfully predicting that the next epidemic crisis would originate there, the
filmmakers behind Contagion included. They also rightfully predicted the way that
the world would act in the face of a global pandemic. Where those with privileged information will
look out for themselves before ever giving a warning to any of the rest of us. How governments will do anything they can
to suppress the truth if it makes their country look bad. How there will be panic and profiteering,
and a lot of fear and uncertainty before it’s all said and done. But the thing that they get correct that matters
most for all of us right now, is that they got through it, and we will get through this
too. I’m in no way shape or form an expert, I have
no idea if this will all be over in a few weeks, a few months, hopefully not longer. But what I do know is that we’re still here. The human race has survived much worse than
this, with much less for medicine or technology, so this won’t be the end of us. But at the same time, this is a serious situation. If the world’s scientists are telling you
to stay home, then that’s what you should do. When they tell you that you’re endangering
those around you by going out, they’re not being dramatic or incendiary, they mean it. So listen to the science, stay informed, and
please stay safe. “I understand, thank you but I can’t let you
in. We just, we’re not going to take any chances.” If we all practice good pandemic protocol
we can have a severe impact on the scale of what we’re looking at here, and the bar for
doing your civic duty literally could not be any lower, so you have no reason not to. All you have to do is stay indoors unless
otherwise necessary. Keep social interactions limited, and self-quarantine
if you’re feeling unwell; and we just have to wait out the worst of it. And if it does get worse from here, well we’ll
cross that bridge when we come to it, and we’ll get through that too. But we all can have an impact on our world,
and I think that now that’s more clear than ever before. So I think we all just have to try to make
sure that our impact tips the scales in the right direction, and if we feel we can’t do
much else the least we can do is be kind and compassionate, everyone is being effected
by this, some more than others and kindness goes a long way in difficult times. Anyways, that’s my two cents. thank you for watching.

35 thoughts on “Contagion | How a Virus Spreads (and how it’s stopped)”

  • Thanks for watching! That outbreak/map sequence nearly broke my computer but I hope you all enjoyed! And I'd really appreciate you guys giving some love to this video's sponsor! Install Raid for Free ✅ IOS: https://clcr.me/PRMu0P ✅ ANDROID: https://clcr.me/V79Xq6 ✅ PC: https://clcr.me/s2vzL2 and get a special starter pack 💥Available only for the next 30 days

  • It's still really funny to me that how a film like this that didn't even get that much attention when it was released is finally starting to get much more attention recently bcoz of time we are living in right now. But nevertheless, I am glad that it is getting some love. 😅

  • honestly the least realistic thing about this movie is how many people were able to find masks and gloves.

  • In this film society completely shuts down and fast. People are looting and not going into work. Trash isn’t being picked up. Electricity shut down. Only getting food from the government. We can see right now that was an unrealistic prediction.

  • Giving a death rate for Covid-19 is imo highly unethical since we honestly have no knowledge about how all of this will end

  • Even without the context of COVID-19 this is still a great movie to watch, easily one of Soderberg's best. Another fantastic job with the background work on the film and the topic as per usual, as someone who studies this type of stuff I can say you did a bang-up job.

  • It was still realistic enough that I find it the most terrifying thrillers I've seen. Always loved it since its release and in a way, I'm glad it's now getting the appreciation it deserved.

    Anyway, thanks for the vid.

  • I remember watching this in health class being so fearful of viruses and germs and to think its happening now is making me even more scared lol hahaha ahhhhh…

  • I saw Contagion for the first time last year during my "best of the decade" roundup as I was minesweeping random well-reviewed movies I missed when they came out. I'm glad that through this video I could refresh my memory on the key bits without having to rewatch the entire movie again haha. Really cool to see your montage of all the accurate components, specifically the way the people with power/privilege use that knowledge for themselves, completely forgot about that! I could honestly watch an entire series of short videos on each of the ways something in Contagion came true with COVID-19. Great video, thanks for persevering through difficult times!

  • I was so surprised to find out that a huge chunk of people I know have not seen the movie. So I recommended them to watch it during this time and they're now paranoid.

  • For those that remember the release of this film. I'm currently in Australia and at the time I was attending university. At Melbourne CBD they had people in full hazmat suits handing out disinfectant wipes when people got off the train. That was 8 years ago and it was a really cool marketing strategy to get people excited for the film. Now theyre doing the exact same thing only its now the real deal. Theyre standing exactly the same station and spot handing wipes and washing down train carriages. I'm just waiting for someone to shake me awake.

  • I've been playing the phone app plague inc. For those who dont know you play a character of a bacteria or virus and try to eliminate life on earth.

    From what I've learned is if the rate of lethality is greater than the rate of transmission then you have a low chance of spreading it to other countries and eliminating the world.

    In the movie, the rate of lethality was too high to have spread to that many people.

    The app use to be free but apparently they are charging 99c to profit off of the interests during this crisis? I'm just guessing.

  • No global health crisis.

    I am a statistician/mathematician. Covid-19 is the biggest scam of my lifetime. 150,000 people die every day on planet Earth. The Covid-19 numbers contain both tested cases and presumptive cases (similar symptoms), which inflate or wildly inflate the numbers.

    Unthinking self-important people have basically equated the flu with the bubonic plague.

    AIDS was purported to become a pandemic but there cannot be a pandemic unless the pathogen or so called pathogen leaves the high risk populations, which Covid-19 is not doing since it is barely more virulent than the flu.

    The reality is that personal immunity can prevent you from getting an Infection, and has completely trounced the germ theory of disease (you are exposed to a pathogen, you will get the infection), in 99% of cases in reality. Most people have terrible diet and terrible habits, and they simply do not want to be responsible for their own choices.

    Many unhealthy people succumb to something fairly minor as their final straw.

    Most cancer patients that have been treated with deadly technology (radiation, chemo) die from something fairly minor because they have no immune system left.

    We could add hundreds of instances of the common cold and flu to various pathogen graphs if only the data were tracked. The scale of ordinary deaths from the most ordinary illness would make most pathogen graphs look absolutely laughable.

    If people are somewhat stupid all this will be a distant memory in 3-4 months and many people will have immunity from this type of fear mongering for a generation. If people are as stupid as they are currently acting then this nonsense will cause a depression and we will be in for waves of tumult the next time some pathogen can be promoted.

    I always talk about how stupid people are, and the experience of the last few weeks proves my assertions.

  • this info might be helpful… a friend sent me the following text… "This has just been forwarded to me from a friend at the ED at the base.
    This is advice given to hospital staff. Explains the virus and how to prevent the virus. Please share with family , friends and work colleagues.
    Internal email for RBH (Royal Brisbane Hospital) staff:
    Virus Detection:
    The simplest way to distinguish Coronavirus from a Common Cold is that the COVID-19 infection does not cause a cold nose or cough with cold, but it does create a dry and rough cough.
    The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. This symptom can last between 3 and 4 days.
    The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 or 6 days.
    Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. The Common Cold is not accompanied, but there may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.
    Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.
    Prevention:
    The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 80°F (27°C). Therefore hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest.
    Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes.
    Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes. WHY? Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus."

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